The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) has forecast that the Mexican economy will grow by 3.1% in 2023, a level that was not expected or expected 9 months ago by economists and analysts.
The National Committee for Economic Studies of the International Monetary Fund revealed that “estimates of real GDP growth for 2023 rose from the expected 2.8% in August to 3.1% in September.”
The January 2023 survey among IMEF members on key macroeconomic variables forecast an estimate of 1.2% real growth in GDP for 2023.
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As the months passed, IMEF economists and consultants adjusted their forecasts for the Mexican economy according to the target set by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), which since last year had forecast 3% growth for the year.
“In September 2023, 69% of respondents raised their estimates, reaching 3.1%. It should be noted that the most optimistic forecast is 3.6% and the most pessimistic is 2.6%,” adds the survey, which brings together the forecasts of 42 analysts from Mexico.
IMEF says inflation rate expectations for 2023 remain at 4.7% for the second time in a row.
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He adds that the traditional general balance forecast as a share of GDP for this year has been revised from -3.8% estimated in August to -3.5% expected in September.
The monetary policy interest rate estimate for the end of 2023 remained at 11.25% for the fifth month in a row.
Employment expectations for 2023 also rose in the September survey to 675,000 IMSS-insured workers. In August, their number was estimated at 627,500.
The expected exchange rate for the end of 2023 was 17.76 pesos per dollar, while in August it was expected to reach 17.90. The current account as a share of GDP was again at -1.0%.
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