They observe a strong tropical wave leaving Africa: What do long-term models plan?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC in English) This Thursday began to observe a tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands in western Africa, creating several areas with irregular rainfall and thunderstorms over the past few hours.

The agency gave a 0% probability of hurricane development at 48 hours (two days) this morning and a 20% probability of five days.

Meteorologist Lee Ann English SerranoWho works at National Weather Service (SNM) in San Juan, for now, explained that the system seems to be “very strong” but it will face weather conditions that will hinder its growth in the short term.

“Now, (this tropical wave) seems very strong, but it’s going to mix a little bit Sahara dust On the way “The expert pointed out in a phone interview.

But What do the long-term models plan about this system?

In fact, global models Global Forecast System (GFS) And this European (ECMWF) The organization created a cycle and suggested early this morning that it would receive some form of hurricane development in the first week of July. However, the tranquility of Puerto Rico, for now, is such that the system will move south of the island and be accompanied by strong thunderstorms and the waters of the Caribbean Sea.

The forecast was confirmed by Ingles Serrano, however, who warned that the tropical wave would still have a week to pass near the region, so the forecast could change.

“Based on what is now predicted, if it is built, it will be slightly south of the island. This is a week to the forecast, so it may change the picture and we need to keep an eye on it. If it goes south, it may increase the chance of rain across the region. It will not do anything to get us out of the drought or fill the reservoirs because it needs something closer to the area, but it will represent a relief, ”the meteorologist said.

The forecast is long, so it is too early to recommend estimates of rainfall the island will receive.

“This weekend we’ll talk about getting closer to the region, not another.”Said English Serrano.

The NHC, in its brief discussion, explained that as the system moves westward at a speed of 15 miles per hour, it may receive the opportunity for gradual hurricane development early next week.

“Climatically, we know that these are regular tropical waves that we start to see in July, but they give us some fear. But tropical waves move fast in July and can affect their growth.”English pointed to Serrano.

Currently, weather conditions in the tropical Atlantic are favorable for the development of tropical cyclones: winds blowing at speeds of 15 to 20 knots (17 to 23 mph), which allows for stability of the cycle; And there is variation in the upper atmosphere and accumulation at the surface, which means that the barometric pressure in the environment may decrease.

For now, the NHC will continue to provide discussions on this organization on a daily basis.