Science. – Average hurricane season expected in the Atlantic Ocean – Publimetro México

Madrid, 14 (Europe Press)

The Atlantic Basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 to November 30.

The number of named storms expected is on the high end of the long-term averages, but on the low end of the average for the last 30 years, according to Lian Shi, a professor of marine, land and atmospheric sciences at NC State. The long-term average (1951 to 2022) for named storms is 11, and the most recent average (1991 to 2020) is 14 named storms.

Of the 11 to 15 predicted storms, six to eight may become strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with two to three storms potentially becoming major hurricanes.

The Gulf of Mexico will also experience a hurricane season in line with historical rates, according to a statement from the university. Of the 11 to 15 named storms projected across the Atlantic basin, Xie data indicates three to five named storms are likely to form in the area, of which one to three will become hurricanes and none or one will become a major hurricane. Historical averages for the Gulf are three named storms and one hurricane.

Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on the locations and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin.