Polling in Brazil: Contrary to others, a poll predicts that Jair Bolsonaro will defeat Lula da Silva.

Photo of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in a debate (REUTERS/Mariana Greif)

This was reported in a paper published on Friday Jair BolsonaroThe Brazilian president and re-election candidate is leading his rival, the former president, in the second election. Lula da SilvaIt could win next Sunday’s polls with a narrow margin of voter intent.

A survey commissioned by ModalMais Bank from the Futura Institute bears that out Bolsonaro has 50.3% of valid votes to Lula’s 49.7%. Valid votes, blanks, invalid votes and those who say don’t know are not taken into account. This is how Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) does the official count of the election.

Survey asked 2,000 people Computer-assisted telephone interviews between October 24 and 26 have a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. That contrasts with other polls released this week that point to Lula’s advantage.

On the other hand, ModalMais/Futura points out Voters’ biggest fear, with 45.2% mentions, is “withdrawal of PT”., referring to the Workers’ Party (PT) led by Lula da Silva. Another 43% cited Bolsonaro’s administration as their biggest fear, citing “the continuation of this government.”

Supporters of president and re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro share space on a street with supporters of former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia, October 26, 2022 (REUTERS / Ueslei Marcelino) #
Supporters of president and re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro share space on a street with supporters of former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia, October 26, 2022 (REUTERS / Ueslei Marcelino) #

After an aggressive campaign, Brazil arrive this Sunday Second round In the presidential election between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva, both leaders have strong popular rejection. The 77-year-old former president won the first round by a margin of 48% to 43%, and they will face each other in their final televised debate this Friday.

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Lula, a former metallurgist, served two terms as president between 2003 and 2010 and was imprisoned in the framework of the “Lava Jato” anti-corruption mega cause. But he resurrected politically after his convictions were overturned for procedural violations.

Bolsonaro, 67, is seeking re-election after a tumultuous mandate, marked by 688,000 deaths from the pandemic, Amazon deforestation and institutional tensions.

In the first round, the president surprised with a better-than-expected performance in the polls.

File photo of an electronic ballot box on election day at a school in Brasilia (EFE/Joédson Alves)
File photo of an electronic ballot box on election day at a school in Brasilia (EFE/Joédson Alves)

Election campaigning was also marked Bolsonaro’s constant questioning of the electronic voting system – without evidenceAn attitude that has raised fears that he will not accept eventual defeat, and riots such as the capitol invasion in the US after Donald Trump’s defeat.

In recent weeks, Bolsonaro has appeared to moderate his rhetoric, pointing his criticism at pollsters. He repeated this last week The armed forces will accept the results unless they find anything “unusual”. Despite the tensions, many analysts reject institutional decay.

(With information from AFP)

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Esmond Harmon

"Entrepreneur. Social media advocate. Amateur travel guru. Freelance introvert. Thinker."

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