Key decision delaying Maduro rule: What Maria Corina Machado's endorsement hinges on

Negotiations, strategies and internal tensions converge in Venezuela's complex political bloc, Maria Corina Machado emerges as a central component. A clear winner in the opposition primaries, he is still disqualified by the regime from contesting next year's presidential election. Their participation poses a political dilemma for the Nicolás Maduro regime and international actors, particularly the United States.

Machado is the opposition's most prominent leader, with growing popularity capable of challenging the dominance of the Nicolás Maduro regime. However, his path to the presidency has been blocked by deliberate political disqualification, not only because his independent participation in the 2024 presidential election would be too radical, but also because, for many observers, it reflects fears on the part of the Chavista dictatorship. Threatening to end his tenure in power, however, his return to the presidency does not represent the guarantee of a consensus change that some sectors of Chavismo would like.

Venezuelan lawyer and political consultant Giulio Cellini RamosThe Maduro regime has made it clear María Corina Machado's authorization to participate in the elections is comparable to her signature of resignation.

“I believe that the probability of Maduro resigning tomorrow is zero, and I see him running at the same percentage. “He has a very clear preference for opinion polls, while there is an atmosphere of general discontent with the regime, which basically borders on exasperation.”, Cellini said.

therefore,”“The government's political activation of María Corina Machado and allowing her to participate in the elections is tantamount to Nicolas Maduro signing his resignation.” assured the director of consultancy firm LOG Consultancy.

According to various opinion polls, the position reflects the regime's perception of the danger posed by the increasingly popular opposition leader.

Surveys indicate that Machado has a clear preference among Venezuelans Making her a candidate to challenge Chavismo. For the regime, losing power to someone they don't trust and who won't guarantee change under their terms is unacceptable, which is why Chavismo spokesmen like Dióstado Cabello have repeatedly advertised that Machado won't run.

However, for the political scientist and political analyst, Piero TrepiccioneThe impossibility of this recognition is not very certain, as one of the legs of the negotiating table between Chavismo and the opposition is supported precisely by the United States, which has reiterated on several occasions that this is one of the conditions for lifting sanctions. The regime is recognized by all Venezuelan politicians, including María Corina Machado, who won a landslide victory in the primary elections, as agreed at a meeting in Barbados.

“The exact terms of the Barbados agreements signed between Chavismo and the opposition are not known to the public. It should also be clear that one of the main points of these negotiations is the holding of presidential elections in Venezuela next year and the participation of all ineligible candidates, including Maria Corina Machado.”, the political scientist highlighted.

While Trebizione believes Machado will be run by the regime sooner or later, he cautions based on actions taken by both sides, including the regime's release of political prisoners and partial lifting of U.S. sanctions. The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Psuv) should not be underestimated and the next year will be crucial in its strategy to damage the liberal leader's image.

“I hope they will remove the disqualification of María Corina Machado, but in parallel the Chavista machine will definitely start building some stories to break the support she is getting,” the political scientist said.

“We cannot underestimate Chavismo, because they are a formidable political force in terms of the balance of their governance and economic policy, but it also manages narratives and political strategies very well, and they are still very good at that,” Trebizione highlighted. .

“María Corina Machado triples Maduro's vote target today, but Chavismo has other political tools it can use to try to fragment the opposition vote”he added.

From the US perspective, The situation is a diplomatic and strategic challenge. Although he was aware of the Maduro regime's reluctance to run Machado, The United States has a primary interest in achieving free presidential elections under normal conditions in Venezuela.

however, The probability of the regime accepting Machado's recognition seems slim. Instead, we see the Venezuelan regime's strategy of encouraging opposition candidates to confuse and scatter votes, seeking to weaken Machado's will and encourage abstention if he is ineligible.

“What the government wants is to create pseudo-opposition candidates that will confuse and scatter the vote, and they will try to get Maria Corina Machado along with disqualifying her. She promotes abstinence. That would be a great scenario for Chavismo, where they can win as a minority, because their ideal is to abandon the electoral path,” Cellini Ramos said.

No less relevant is Chavismo's keen ability to manage political narratives and historical control of power, which allowed it to strategically counter the opposition, minimize its errors, and maximize its victories. However, growing support for Machado, evidenced in recent opposition primaries, may prompt a change in the regime's tactics, and his disqualification lifted as new tactics are used against him.

The Maduro regime is seeking to undermine the forcefully expressed popular will in favor of María Corina Machado. The government's strategy is aimed at distorting the opposition's vote and undermining Machado's support. Over the years, Chavismo has proven adept at managing political narratives and strategies, and is expected to use these resources to counter growing support for the opposition leader.

The opposition leader, despite being disqualified from public office, has maintained a firm stance against the ban, even before the regime's court, making a surprise appearance seeking the removal of the disqualification.

“Maria Corina has been making sure she is not disqualified for the past few months. The procedure for establishing legal defects is governed by law,” Cellini said.

“For the government, Maria Corina must appear in court to seek institutional recognition and to justify a decision to reconsider her disqualification,” Cellini argued.

“If Maria Corina goes to the court of the regime, in some way she recognizes this institution. But apparently she wasn't going to recognize him for anything in return. This would be a strategic error because then the Govt Maybe based on the fact that he didn't qualify her because she didn't go to court” he added.

According to the political analyst, the Machado regime's move to the Supreme Court is a victory because “it now puts the ball in the government's court” and if they are unable to implement it. “They have to accept national and international costs.”.

The image of Alex Sapp, detained in an operation involving the United States, may represent a bargaining chip for the Venezuelan regime. His arrest and potential use as an exchange card demonstrate the complexity of the Barbados negotiations and the need to build trust between the parties.

Trust, an important element in negotiations, is supported by demonstration The United States abides by the treaties. Chapin's release would be a possible condition for Machado's recognition and would contribute to improving the climate for negotiations between the two sides, which have historically distrusted each other.

“Alex Saab may represent a bargaining chip for America, but ultimately It was already disturbing them. As they detained him in an operation in Cape Verde, they exposed him to an orange prisoner's underwear, a symbol so powerful that they kept him in prison for more than three years. They got all the information they were interested in“They squeezed him and he returned without money, because without a doubt they seized any amount of property,” said Cellini Ramos.

The complexities of the Venezuelan situation emphasize the importance of a free electoral process and the rehabilitation of a legitimate opposition on the political stage. The image of María Corina Machado and the way the Maduro regime manages her potential candidacy will be decisive for the country's democratic future.