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For many, many centuries humans have seen tstarted trying to predict the future. In ancient times the Chinese had the I ching, on the other hand the Greeks had the greek oracles, who preferred to seek answers within the entrails of animals.
Currently intelligence agencies Of the powerful countries are those that are based on the opinions of experts to forecast events, however there are ordinary people who surpass these elements of these national institutions when it comes to predicting the future.
These are called by science as “super forecasters”. According to writer David Robson, who is the author of “The Intelligence Trap,” these are not some kind of psychic fortune teller, but rather several scientists point out that these people have certain specific personality traits and abilities.
What are “super forecasters” according to science?
It should be noted that the term “super forecaster” was born during a project where new approaches were sought in political predictions, which received the name of “Good Judgment Project”, which was financed by the Activity of Intelligence Advanced Research Projects (IARPA).
This ´project was directed by the political scientist Philip E. TetlockIn 2011, thousands of people of all social origins were invited to participate in order to test their skills in the world of predicting the future.
After more than four years, 500 questions and a million predictions, the people who were in the 2 percent most successful was called a super forecaster.
After analyzing 82,361 predictions from 284 experts in fields such as political science, economics and journalism, he came to the conclusion that these people always see their predictions as a hypothesis and are constantly in search of new information.
These people spend their time carefully evaluating each of these data data and updating their predictions according to their results in the present.
However, the most important characteristic in this 2 percent of people is that they always have a genuinely open mind and do not emphasize analytical thinking.
In an article written by the BBC An example of what an open and analytical mind is to predict events is given, which is the following sentence: “If the wind blows from the east and an electric train is heading west. In which direction will the smoke blow from the locomotive?”.
The answer is very simple, the smoke does not go in any direction, it is an electric train. This is the example of having an open and analytical mind with which you can predict an event.
With information from the BBC