Fifty minutes have passed since the polls closed, and Colombia already has a loyal political lens to see for itself. That mirror reflected a new image for the country: its left profile for the first time in two centuries since independence than the right. Gustavo Pedro won a landslide victory with eleven million votes and 50% of the total vote.. He added to his coalition less than Rodolfo Hernandez, who nearly doubled his first-round vote. But it was enough to give him an elegant win.
This success is not coming from anywhere, but creating an evolution that began many years ago. There are two ways to look at it. One is purely ideological, very abrupt: the left, led by Pedro, has risen from 0 to 41.7% in eight years and from 41.7% to 50.5%.
The other is the desire for change of the political elite, which is inevitably intertwined. In this, the center played its part, as did the populist left over the past decade: the mathematician Antonas Mokas was the first “alternative” to make it to the second presidential round. Today, if we consider Rodolfo Hernandez as an opponent Establishing (And that does not seem fair: after all, he defeated the traditional right-wing candidate for second place), dominating the entire second round Popular proposals. But it was Pedro who carried it in the open battle for the flag of change (first between the center and the left, then the right, center and left).
It has done the same with the increase in participation. It is true that the dynamics of the referendum were disabled throughout the second round of the campaign Rudolf descent Led him to think that he has a bag that has not been decided whether it is favorable or harmful. Say it another way: to win you can think of mobilizing rather than mobilizing Pedro. However, his win added 2.7 million and comes with an increase in participation compared to the first round.
The only possible conclusion from these data is that Pedro’s left-wing proposal is against its dual ideological backbone and the elite. This is not an accidental victory, or (only) the failure of a competitor’s campaign (although it’s probably easier for them). This is, in fact, based on the increase in votes in each region of Colombia. In areas where he was most opposed (albeit to a lesser extent), as expected, he did not succeed: Hernandez’s native Santander, Alvaro Europe’s Antioquia.
The election map shows the division of two Colombians: the conservative interior, first the liberal and now the progressive perimeter. But Gustavo Pedro managed to penetrate a little more into areas that were (and will be) contradictory to him.
More importantly, these increases occur in areas where total turnout has not developed, and on beaches, precisely where new ballots have to be produced to win. Reports say he won.
The dynamics in both cases, yes, need to be looked at from a different perspective. In the Pacific, the turnout in the first round has already risen a lot compared to 2018, perhaps driven by Vice President Formula Francia Marquez, his personal history and activity in the region and his ability to execute the vote. Afro By the strong argument that he could be the first vice president of this dynasty in Colombia. But Marlene Castillo, a woman of Afro-descent, may have reversed part of this effect. However, this does not seem to have been the case, and it represents a historic milestone with the effect of participating in the poorest part of the country and the greatest logistical difficulties, which will have to be seen if it persists in future elections. In the Caribbean, on the other hand, these increases were relatively possible because the first round of voting was lower than expected, but the truth is, they occurred, and it is necessary to analyze in detail what the mechanisms were here. Now provoked them, but not on May 29th.
But, beyond these guidelines, the first data underscores that Pedro won the first presidency for the Colombian, through a mobilization strategy rather than a mobilization. This is not only to lower the competitor’s bar, but also to elevate one’s own. This would not have been possible if the issue-by-issue, issue-by-issue, intermediate voter had been between the center and the left.
Colombia is becoming less conservative than many (especially Colombian conservatives) believe. And the results of the 2022 presidential election only confirm this hypothesis.