Early voting is huge in Georgia’s Senate race – but what does that mean?

More than 1.4 million people have already voted in Georgia’s two January 5 U.S. Senate elections ahead of the election, a sign that enthusiasm has not waned since the presidential election.

Those early ballot numbers are on par with the historic turnout in the November presidential race Georgia votes, A non-profit website that monitors voting in the state. At this point in the general election, the turnout was about 1.5 million, according to the site number.

“It’s shocking,” Charles Bullock, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, told Vokes. 1992 Total vote of the Senate. The current turnout is close to two-thirds of the 2.1 million votes cast 2008 Senate Flow, The most recent Senate flow in state history. “We’re on our way to cross those sorts of percentages,” Bullock added.

Sen. David Bertue (R) and John Osoff of the Democrats, and sen. Kelly Lofler (R) and Democrat Rev. Fr. It remains to be seen who will benefit from these trends in the races between Rafael Warnock. Georgia has historically been a Republican, but Joe Biden was the first Democrat to win a presidential election there since 1992.

The U.S. Senate is due to vote two weeks before the race to ultimately decide which party will control it – and by extension, to determine the fate of much of Biden’s agenda in Washington, D.C. Democrats need to win both seats to get a majority in the Senate: 50 votes and the ballot of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris.

The Democratic candidates who ran behind Biden in the November election are the Rev. Rafael Warnock and John Osof need more voting. Data shows that more than 41,000 voters who cast ballots during the early polls did not vote in the 2020 general election. This group makes up less than 3 percent of the total electorate, but in close and tight elections, even a small group can make a difference.

Republicans know the stakes are high, but They sometimes struggled with messaging Especially since President Donald Trump is reluctant to admit defeat in the November election and have to shoot their base.

“The vote is important,” Cook’s political statement Senate editor Jessica Taylor recently told Vox. “Democrats need to get their voters back out.”

What we know so far about the early voter turnout

The data breakdown of Georgia’s 1.4 million votes so far has shown some signs of encouraging Democrats.

The biggest issue is the Black vote, which is currently up 32 percent of the total vote, according to Georgia vote data. Bullock and the New York Times election analyst Nate Cohn noted So far the number of black voters seems to be high Than it was at this point in the general election. Black voters are the backbone of the Democratic Party base in Georgia, but their share of the vote fell to 27 percent in the 2020 election.

Political experts say black votes should be close to 30 percent for Democrats to function better. So while this 32 percent figure may seem encouraging right now, no prediction can be drawn from these numbers without knowing what the January 5 turnout will look like. In other words, even if Democrats perform better in the early polls, Republican voters could wipe out those gains in early January.

“They could turn out to be a much larger number than African Americans and reduce that number,” Bullock said.

In addition, while Black voters undoubtedly hold the majority of Georgia’s democratic base, the 2020 election showed that a successful alliance has been built on Asian American and Pacific Island (AAPI) voters, Latin voters, and white suburban women.

The Georgia votes data Early voting shows that female voters have so far risen from 54 percent to 44 percent, but again, as the election approaches, that number will undoubtedly change.

“It’s not just a group you’re trying to get out of,” said Georgia State Sen. Jen Jordan, a Democrat, recently told Vox. “If any of those elements really fall, you lose – that’s why it’s hard. It’s a very difficult task for Democrats, but that doesn’t mean it won’t or won’t happen.”