The election is seen not only as an act of state, but also as a barometer of potential voter preferences heading into the 2024 presidential election.
The State of Mexico is the federal entity with the largest population in the country, according to statistics, 16.9 million 2020 at the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).. With a voter roll of 12.6 million, the weight of the vote in the state of Mexico is significant.
To illustrate its scale, it is roughly equivalent to the combined population of El Salvador and Nicaragua.
“It’s 60% of the voter list in all of Central America, the same voter list as Chile, and bigger than Uruguay and Paraguay. We’re talking about a very large voter turnout,” explained Bernardo Barranco. A political analyst and former electoral consultant for the State of Mexico.
Because of its electoral size, the state of Mexico is a fundamental place for measuring the power of parties. “This is an important repository of votes at the national level, both the PRI and the PAN have the highest number of votes at the national level. As for Morena, here he is first or second in the number of votes at the national level,” explains Professor Juan Carlos Villarreal Martínez from the Autonomous University of the State of Mexico.
For this reason, analysts believe that what happens in the elections in the state of Mexico could be a laboratory for the 2024 presidential election.
“This percentage could be the final orientation before the presidential elections (of the state of Mexico) on the 24th,” says Barranco.
“Anyone who wants to achieve a good result in next year’s elections must win either yes or no in the state of Mexico. For Morena, it will not only reach 23 governorships, but will govern more than 60% of the nominal list,” says academic Villarreal. “For the Vamos por el Estado de México coalition, it is essential to win in the best conditions to compete in 2024.”
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