González Urrutia leads Maduro in the most reliable poll of the presidential election

Edmundo González Urrutia in Caracas in May 2024.
Jesus Vargas (Getty Images)

Edmundo González Urrutia – unknown until recently – is running for president in Venezuela with the support of opposition leader María Corina Machado. According to the average of polls published so far, it already has a 50% voting intention. For his part, the official candidate and current Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, is up a few points, with his support levels ranging from 22% to 25%.

By: Country

Saúl Cabrera from the Consultores 21 company confirms that these July 28 elections are on the road to polarization again: “González Urrutia already has all the support that Maria Corina had and can continue to grow.” Cell phones, social networks and WhatsApp groups have catapulted González Urrutia, in a matter of days, from total obscurity to full recognition by the majority of the population. Cabrera notes that “minority candidates and juridicalized parties are not out, they are small and homogeneous on the margins,” referring to parties that pose as opposition but fall under the wing of Chavismo. “I think the government has not succeeded in this attempt to divide the vote,” he added.

Felix Seejas, a political analyst and director of pollster Delpos, concedes that the opposition candidate has room to continue gaining support “especially among the undecided.” Analyzing the official candidate, he points out that “since last year, Maduro has been steadily rising in acceptance points.” That is, his campaign, joined by President of the Assembly Jorge Rodríguez and Vice President of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) Deostato Cabello, has made an impact. “Now it's closer to 25%. But at least it's stuck around that number for now.

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Dissemination and analysis of opinion polls, a perfectly natural phenomenon in any democratic election, has become a form of public taboo in Venezuela, due to the irritation their content causes to some Chavista officials. At a press conference last week, Rodríguez denied pollsters portraying the country's political reality (predicting all of Hugo Chávez's victories in the past), and said the spread of those numbers was part of a calculated plan. Preemptive fraud and boycott Venezuelan companies.

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Esmond Harmon

"Entrepreneur. Social media advocate. Amateur travel guru. Freelance introvert. Thinker."

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