CNN poll: Biden continues to reap nationwide benefits in the final days of the 2020 race

Among voters, 54% are Biden and 42% are Trump. Biden has been leading every CNN poll since 2019, and has had statistically significant gains in every high-profile national poll since the spring.

The poll makes no indication that Trump’s four-year re-election campaign was able to gain significant new supporters after a narrow victory in the 2016 election.

Trump’s chances of closing the gap, apart from major changes in terrain in the final days of the race, are deeply dependent on Election Day voting. The poll found that those who had already voted (64% from Biden to 34% Trump) or those who planned to vote early did not do so at the time they were interviewed (63% from Biden to 33% Trump). Two-thirds support. Trump leads between 59% and 36% of those who say they plan to vote on election day.

The population gaps that have defined the country’s politics over the past four years remain the same. Women break down hard to fit, 61% to 37%. Among men, this is an equal split, 48% for Trump and 47% for Biden. Colored voters support the Democrats by nearly 50 points, 71% to 24%, while white voters divide Trump by 50% to 48% for Biden.

Equal numbers of men and white voters cover up significant divisions in education between whites and those of the opposite sex. Both colored women (77% from Biden to 21% of Trump) and white women (54% of Biden to 45% of Trump) break into Piton, and men of color (64% from Biden to 28% of Trump). However, 56% to 41% of white men support Trump.

College graduates support Biden by 30 points, while those without degrees are evenly divided. Among white voters, the difference is huge. College-graduated white voters support Biden by 58% to 40%. Those white voters who have not graduated in four years are a mirror image, breaking 58% for Trump and 40% for Biden. Among white voters with degrees, the gender gap is relatively small, but it is 38 points for white women without degrees (49% biden to 49% Trump) and white men without degrees (68% Trump to 30% per biden). .

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And the seniors, who have moved in the direction of the Democrats in the 2018 election, are firmly in Biden’s corner in this poll. Overall, 55% of voters 65 years of age or older have 44% more Trump than Democrats. Biden leads among voters under the age of 35 (68% between Biden and 30% Trump), while voters between the ages of 35 and 64 are equally divided between the two candidates (48% behind each candidate).

The president’s approval rating of 42% to 55% in the referendum is denied to all adults. Among potential voters, this is 42% with 56% denying approval. With the exception of one of the 12 polls conducted by CNN since October 2019, the numbers have rarely been budgeted for in the past year, with approvals ranging from 40% to 45%. Now the numbers are no different from Trump’s first approval rating on CNN. In 2017, 44% voted in favor and 53% rejected.

Only 4 out of 10 Americans now say things are going better in the country (39%). That number has only doubled in the re-election years since 1980: in 1992 (35% going well) and in 1980 (32% going well).

All the data point to an election as an unpopular presidential referendum, and a significant proportion of supporters of both candidates make their decisions based on their feelings about Trump. Among Biden’s supporters, 48% say their vote is more against Trump than Biden’s, and 48% say they are against Biden, not the president. While this is still a major anti-Trump vote, it is a shift in favor of the pro-Biden vote compared to the previous vote in the cycle. On the other hand, 8 out of 10 Trump supporters (79%) say their vote is more in favor of the president than against Biden (17%).

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Nevertheless, the news of the Trump campaign in the final weeks of the campaign has been consistently negative about Biden. The poll suggests it makes little difference to the former vice president’s views. The Democratic candidate’s rating on the ballot is largely positive: 55% of voters have a positive view and 42% a negative view, as it did in early October. Trump’s numbers are just as negative as they were earlier this month: 57% have a negative opinion of him and 41% have a positive view.

In 2016, outgoing polls showed that voters who had unfavorable views on both Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton broke out harshly in favor of Trump. But that number of voters with candidates this year is small, ranging from 18% in CNN’s exit poll in 2016 to 4% now. The majority have a positive view of Biden, but not of Trump (51%), only 37% have a positive view of Trump, but not of Biden.

Biden maintains advantages over Trump as a candidate who unites the country (54% to 40%) who cares about people like you (54% to 40%) (54% to 37%) (60% Biden to 34% Trump). ) And who will protect Americans from harm (52% to 45%). Voters are divided, however, as to which candidate has the tolerance and sharpness to run for president (47% Trump says, 46% Biden), which is the focal point of Trump who hit Biden over his age during the campaign.

Voters are more likely to consider a candidate’s position on issues that are important to their ballot rather than leadership and personal qualities. But the subcommittee focusing on personal qualities breaks down hard for Fiden (71% support Biden, 27% Trump), while those who say the issues are more important are in favor of Trump (54% Trump to 43% Fiden).

Overall, Biden is often seen as a candidate with a clear plan to solve the country’s problems, with 54% saying Biden and 41% Trump. Racial inequality (60% Biden to 36% Trump), corona virus outbreak (57% to 39%), health care (57% to 41%), crime and protection (52% to 46%) and Supreme Court recommendations ( 51% to 44%). However, Trump has regained an edge in dealing with the economy (51% to Trump to 46% to Fiden).

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More generally, a majority of voters believe that Biden’s policy proposals could move the country in the right direction (53%), while Trump’s plans point in the wrong direction (53%).

All of these operate in the context of an acute corona virus infection. Eight months after most of the country closed to slow the spread of the virus, 50% of Americans say the worst of the outbreak has not yet come. Only half say they are comfortable returning to their regular routines. In addition, 40% say the economy is still in recession due to the virus, while 29% say the economy is starting to recover.

In all of these measures on where the country stands in the fight against the corona virus, Biden voters and Trump voters have completely different views. Among Biden supporters, 77% say the epidemic is at its worst, while 78% of Trump voters feel it is behind us. More than 8 in 10 (84%) of Trump supporters today say they are comfortable returning to their usual practices, while 76% of non-Biden voters do not. 64% of Biden supporters say the economy is getting worse, while 62% of Trump voters feel it is rising.

The CNN poll SSSRS reached out to 1,005 adults in a randomized national sample from October 23 to 26 via a live interview on landlines or cell phones, which has 886 voters. Results for the whole sample have a margin of sample error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points; This is a plus or minus 3.8 points for results among voters.

Correction: This story has corrected the error margins for the overall results and the results among the voters.

Eden Hayes

"Wannabe gamer. Subtly charming beer buff. General pop culture trailblazer. Incurable thinker. Certified analyst."

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