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Analysts estimate that inflation in Mexico would have slowed in February

Rudyard Kipling by Rudyard Kipling
March 5, 2024
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The inflation rate in Mexico fell in February, according to a survey conducted by the Foundation Reuters It was published on Monday, boosting bets that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) may cut its key reference interest rate this month.

The average forecast of 15 analysts expected the annual headline inflation rate to stabilize at 4.42% in February, down from 4.88% in January, continuing a downward trend that briefly halted late last year.

Core inflation, which is closely watched and is a better measure because it excludes volatile energy and food prices, is expected to fall to 4.62% for the month, its lowest level since June 2021.

However, both rates would still be above Banxico's target range of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.

We recommend: Banxico's attack against inflation will be less moderate in 2024: analysts

Last month, Banxico again kept its benchmark interest rate at a record 11.25%, but hinted that a rate cut could be on the table at upcoming meetings.

A recent poll of economists by financial group Citibanamex showed that most expect an initial interest rate cut when Banxico's board meets on March 21.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices in Mexico are expected to rise by 0.11% in February, with core inflation at 0.49%.

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) will publish official inflation data for February on Thursday.

With information from Reuters

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Rudyard Kipling

Rudyard Kipling

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